食源性寄生虫的风险评估

风险(risk)是由一种或多种危害因子而引发危害事件的一种可能性或概率。危害因子可能属于物理的、化学的、微生物的范畴,病原微生物中的细菌、病毒、寄生虫等都可成为引发危害事件的风险因子。评估某一因子是否对人或其他生物构成威胁以及所危害的程度显得至关重要。事实上,存在于环境中的危险因子及其多种可能的传播途径都会引发多种危害性事件。因此,要想充分了解并揭示由危害因子引发危害的概率,以及其随后对人类健康造成的危害并非易事。风险评估则是对不良结果或不期望事件发生几率进行描述及定量的系统过程,现已被视为一种用于揭示存在于环境中的各种危害及其对人类健康造成的影响的方法。论文主要对食源性寄生虫风险评估的方法进行全面阐述。     

食品中亚硝酸盐的风险评估

亚硝酸盐中毒是常见的食物中毒,其对人体健康的危害极为严重.通过危害识别、危害描述、暴露评估和风险描述等方面对亚硝酸盐风险进行全面的分析,并对其提出了风险管理的建议.     

Epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus—An assessment of the likelihood of introduction and establishment in England and Wales

Epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus (EHNV) is an iridovirus that affects perch (Perca fluviatilis) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). It emerged in Australia in the 1980s and has not been discovered elsewhere. It causes a high level of mortality in perch resulting in steep population declines. The main possible routes of introduction of the virus to England and Wales are the importation of infected live fish or carcasses. However, no trade in live susceptible species is permitted under current legislation, and no importation of carcasses currently takes place. The virus is hardy and low levels of challenge can infect perch. Therefore, mechanical transmission through the importation of non-susceptible fish species should be considered as a potential route of introduction and establishment. Carp (Cyprinus carpio) have been imported to the UK from Australia for release into still-water fisheries. A qualitative risk assessment concluded that the likelihood of EHNV introduction and establishment in England and Wales with the importation of a consignment of carp was very low. The level of uncertainty at a number of steps in the risk assessment scenario tree was high, notably the likelihood that carp become contaminated with the virus and whether effective contact (resulting in pathogen transmission) is made between the introduced carp and susceptible species in England and Wales. The virus would only establish when the water temperature is greater than 12 °C. Analysis of 10 years of data from two rivers in south-west England indicated that establishment could occur over a period of at least 14 weeks a year in southern England (when average water temperature exceed 12 °C). Imports of live fish from Australia need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to determine which, if any, sanitary measures are required to reduce the assessed risk to an acceptable level.     

脂肪酸值仪法测定稻米脂肪酸值研究

本研究建立了稻米中脂肪酸值的脂肪酸值仪测定方法。该方法适用于在室温下以无水乙醇提取稻谷、糙米、大米中游离脂肪酸,用标准氢氧化钾滴定液滴定,进行脂肪酸值的测定。结果表明,脂肪酸值在0~240(KOH)/(mg/100g)范围内与消耗标准滴定液的体积呈良好的线性相关,r=0.9997;方法的回收率为89%~113%;三个不同脂肪酸值的稻谷样品15次平行测试的极差最大者为1.73(KOH)/(mg/100g)干基,小于重复性临界值2(KOH)/(mg/100g)干基,标准偏差在0.36~0.55范围内,99%置信区间(随机误差的不确定度)均≤±0.42;40个样品的检测结果与GB/T15684-1995法检测结果比较,均小于重复性临界值2(KOH)/(mg/100g)干基。     

美系短角肉种牛生长发育性能测定

[目的]为了确保美系短角牛选育及推广利用工作顺利进行。[方法]对云南省种羊场扩繁选育的全日制放牧条件下短角牛进行体重、体尺测定。采用牛体重、体尺测定的常规方法,分别测定初生、6月龄、12月龄、18月龄、24月龄、36月龄和成年等不同发育阶段公母牛的体重和体尺。[结果]短角牛种公牛有两个增重高峰,分别是从初生到6月龄和从36月龄到成年;而短角牛母牛的增重从初生到12月龄增重为最快,以后的增重速度变慢。成年公牛体重821.56±62.67kg,体高143.44±5.00cm,体斜长172.89±7.85cm,胸围207.50±7.98cm;母牛分别为543.14±45.20kg,135.34±4.56cm,160.59±7.90cm和187.96±7.20cm。[结论]美系短角牛在云南省种羊场生长发育良好,具备了一定的供种能力。     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

中国信用风险缓释工具创新试点最新进展研究

信用风险缓释工具是中国银行间市场2010年创新试点推出的信用风险管理工具，它将短期融资券、中期票据和贷款等信用产品的信用风险剥离定价，并转移给愿意承担风险的投资者，其推出从根本上改变了商业银行等金融机构信用风险管理的传统特征。通过对信用风险缓释工具试点中投资主体培育、市场定价、做市商机制、信息披露、市场外部环境建设等问题进行研究，有利于信用缓释工具功能的充分发挥，有利于完善债券市场信用风险分担机制、有利于商业银行等投资者动态、专业地管理信用风险。     

基于风险与效益模型的政府农业科技投入范围界定

在分析农业科技研发层次与演化流程的基础上,提出了不同研究阶段的农业技术类型和特征,构建了农业科技研发投入风险与效益模型,揭示了政府农业科技投入领域的选择行为,并以此界定了农业科技投入的合理范围。     

北京市公园绿地投资标准测算

公园绿地作为"唯一有生命力"的城市基础设施,一直以来其建设和投资标准不像道路、管线等基础睡设施那般明确,而随着近年来城市发展对生态环境的日益重视,各类公园绿地项目逐渐增多。为了加强公园绿地项目在前期设计和审批阶段的科学性、合理性,文章结合北京市当前园林绿化的实际情况,按照"一亩地公园"模型的思路,根据不同的投资工程,建立了投资标准测算模型,测算了投资指标,尝试为公园绿地的投资标准确定提供一种新的思路。     

Turbidity‐induced changes in emergent effects of multiple predators with different foraging strategies

Abstract – In natural systems, prey frequently interact with multiple predators and the outcome often cannot be predicted by summing the effects of individual predator species. Multiple predator interactions can create emergent effects for prey, but how those change across environmental gradients is poorly understood. Turbidity is an environmental factor in aquatic systems that may influence multiple predator effects on prey. Interactions between a cruising predator (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides) and an ambush predator (muskellunge Esox masquinongy) and their combination foraging on a shared prey (bluegill Lepomis macrochirus) were examined across a turbidity gradient. Turbidity modified multiple predator effects on prey. In clear water, combined predators consumed in total more prey than expected from individual predator treatments, suggesting risk enhancement for prey. In moderately turbid water, the predators consumed fewer prey together than expected, suggesting a risk reduction for prey. At high turbidity, there were no apparent emergent effects; however, the cruising predator consumed more prey than the ambush predator, suggesting an advantage for this predator. Understanding multiple predator traits across a gradient of turbidity increases our understanding of how complex natural systems function.